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Recent Blog Post: Earlybird Special: 4-Before-4
You would think that the proliferation of fantasy sports outlets on the Internet would lead to a wide array of conflicting ideologies and opinions across the board, but that has hardly been the case. What still ends up happening a lot of the time is that we get goaded into engaging in groupthink -- that is, we often settle for accepting the 'consensus' at the expense of independent and critical thinking.
I'll be the first to tell you that what the 'consensus' tells you to do is often times wrong, because when everyone thinks alike, no one thinks at all. Nothing is ever set in stone in the fantasy realm, and I'd be lying to you if I was to tell you that I can promise or guarantee that player A will finish ahead of player B. We're playing a game of probablities here, where each manager is trying to determine for him or herself what the most likely outcome is.
As it stands, my top-4 at the moment is Chris Paul, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Kevin Durant (in that order). Does that mean I can't see it playing out another way? Absolutely not. I could envision scenarios where each one of these guys experiences a drop-off in value. I just don't think it's very likely is all.
So with all that said, let's throw concepts like ADP and 'consensus' out the window and start from scratch. Your reason for ranking a player at a certain spot should never be, "Well this site or this person has him ranked there", or "Well his ADP is higher so I'll draft him first". There should always be some sort of rhyme or reason behind it.
In this article I'll take a detailed look at a few players who are being overdrafted in the early rounds (1-4). This may be a bit controversial given their perceived values at the moment, but bear with me. Just set aside your preconceived notions for the duration of this piece and you'll come away convinced as to why you should avoid these players at their current ADPs.
Pau Gasol (preseason ADP: 9.4)
Gasol has been grouped with the likes of Amar'e Stoudemire, Al Jefferson, and Chris Bosh as elite big men who warrant selections in the latter part of the first round. And conceptually it makes sense. Gasol finished the season ranked 12th in per-game value and 6th in cumulative value, and is not an injury risk like the aformentioned trio. This, combined with the fact that owners generally shy away from taking risks early on, explains why his current ADP puts him atop this group of bigs.
One major oversight though -- the assumption that his team situation in LA remains as conducive to fantasy-friendly production as it was last season.
That certainly won't be the case this year with the return of Andrew Bynum. The effect of Bynum on Gasol's numbers has been grossly understated up to this point, partly because the statistical disparity hasn't been presented in a cut-and-dry sort of manner. Well, here you go:
Without Bynum: 32 games, 39.4 minutes, 20.8 points, 10.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.2 blocks, 1.2 steals, 2 turnovers, 58.8% FG on 14.1 attempts, 76.6% FT on 5.5 attempts.
With Bynum: 49 games, 35.5 minutes, 17.6 points, 9.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 0.9 blocks, 0.4 steals, 1.9 turnovers, 55.1% FG on 12 attempts, 78.9% FT on 5.5 attempts.
To translate this into more fantasy-relevant language, Gasol was ranked 5th in per-game production when Bynum was out (injured) compared to 34th when Bynum was on the court.
If preseason is any indication of what's to come, you've got me seriously concerned about Gasol even cracking the top-25 this year. Bynum has looked fluid and flat-out dominant in the Lakers' first two preseason games, aggressively asserting himself in the post and demanding the ball on repeated occasions. Now this was against a defensively-challenged Warriors frontcourt, but averages of 21.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 1 block are impressive regardless of who you're playing.
Throw in the Artest/Ariza swap on top of that and that's even fewer possessions to go around this year (Artest's career usage rate is 23.6%; Ariza's is at a modest 17.2%).
Look, I can follow the rationale that you don't want to draft an injury risk in the first round. I get it. But you're looking at the wrong place if you think Gasol will be the solution to your dilemma. I can easily see him becoming overly passive this year and taking a back seat to Bynum since it's in his nature to be more of a team-oriented faciliator than an aggressor.
Bottom line is that we really have no idea how far Gasol's numbers will slip this year because it's almost an entirely new situation he's entering. It's like playing the limbo when trying to range him: "how low can you go?" I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say his break-even point is right near that 2nd-to-3rd round turn around picks 24-26.
So my piece of advice: If you're looking to go the more conservative route early on and are set on avoiding guys like Al Jefferson and Amar'e Stoudemire, opt for guys like Brandon Roy, Jose Calderon, and Deron Williams instead. Don't be suckered into spending a top-15 pick on Gasol just because you're expected to do so.
Kevin Garnett (preseason ADP: 13.1)
KG is simply not close to where he needs to be health-wise to put up the top-15 numbers that many owners are expecting, and it's not like the Celtics have much motivation or interest in expediting his recovery process from offseason knee surgery to enable him to do so. The addition of Rasheed Wallace gives the Celtics some much-needed frontcourt flexibility that will allow them to limit Garnett to 28-30 minutes per game in the interest of preserving him for the playoff stretch. You can count on Boston giving KG the kid-glove treatment all season long, which simply does not bode well for his fantasy outlook.
On a per-game basis, his value has become increasingly tied to his shooting percentages as his blocks have plumetted (career-low 1.2 last season) and he is no longer a double-double threat. Call me a skeptic, but I doubt he'll repeat his '08-'09 percentages -- 53.1% from the field (.8% off his career-high) and 84.1% from the line (career-high).
For KG to warrant this draft position he will need to stay healthy AND put up at least 15/8/1 with solid percentages, something I just do not see happening. That's an awfully tall order for a guy who has already surpassed the 42,000 minute mark (playoffs included). I suspect it'll be one or the other -- either he puts up top-notch averages but misses 20+ games, or his per-game numbers slip at the expense of more games played. My money is on the latter.
Caron Butler (preseason ADP: 19.3)
The main (perhaps only) reason why Butler has been drafted so high over the past couple years is because of his stellar per-game averages, headlined by his contribution in the steals category. Why else would owners put up with a guy who has missed an average of 19.3 games over the past three seasons?
Well not only is he at risk to miss a good chunk of games this year, but his per-game averages are also in serious jeopardy of declining further. With Gilbert Arenas back, Butler will find a hard time maintaining his production with respect to points, three-pointers made, and assists. And also with coach Flip Saunders wanting him to gamble less on defense and be more of a 'meat-and-potatoes type', he'll be hard pressed to eclipse the 2 SPG mark, the foundation on which a good chunk of his value has been built on.
There really is no upshot to drafting Butler in the second round this year, as he has had numerous opportunities to put everything together in the past and has come up short every single time. Interesting fact: he has never finished in the top-30 in cumulative value.
So why exactly is he going in the top-20 if he has never done it in the past and faces even more hurdles this season?
The fact that he is going ahead of guys like Andre Iguodala (23.2), Vince Carter (29.0), and Gerald Wallace (29.2) is mind-boggling to say the least. He isn't even guaranteed to finish in the top-35 this season, let alone the top-20. There are a multitude of small forwards I would be drafting ahead of Butler -- the aformentioned trio above, Shawn Marion, Jason Richardson, John Salmons, and Paul Pierce.
Manu Ginobili (preseason ADP: 46.7)
Ginobili had a near-disastrous season by his standards last year, missing 38 games because of a ankle injury and seeing a drop in his averages across the board. It appears his days as a fantasy force have been numbered, as coach Gregg Popovich will turn his attention to keeping Manu healthy for the playoff run. Keep in mind that he has eclipsed the 75-game mark only once in his seven-year career, averaging a little over 68 games played per season, so you should fully expect Pop to play it safe and hold Ginobili out of a few games down the stretch. We've already begun to see Pop significantly limit his starter's minutes in the preseason.
The Spurs made a quite a bit of noise in the offseason, and two acquisitions in particular should have some implications for Ginobili's production. First, the addition of Richard Jefferson takes away much of the scoring burden off of his shoulders. Manu won't need to score in the upper teens anymore with Jefferson there, so expect his scoring clip to fall back between 15-16 points a game. Secondly, the addition of Antonio McDyess should mean a bit of a dip in Ginobili's rebounding total, as McDyess' 19.3 rebound rate dwarfs what Matt Bonner was able to do last year (11.9).
Manu will continue to be an extremely valuable commodity to the Spurs in real life, but he has far less value in the fantasy realm. To have high expectations for a sixth man on a team predicated on balance that just added two significant complimentary pieces in the offseason is a bit outlandish. He'll be worth a pick in the mid-to-late sixth round, but I wouldn't be drafting him any sooner than that.
Honorable Mention: Baron Davis (44.4) - Unknown quantity; who knows if he'll show up motivated to play?
*preseason ADP: Yahoo! ADP as of 10/14*
Posted by Justin Phan at 10/15/2009 2:58:00 AM
Comments (3)
Recent San Antonio Spurs Player News
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| RotoWire Update |
Recommendation |
| Richard Jefferson (F) SAN
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11/19/2009 |
| Jefferson had 16 points and six rebounds in the Spurs' loss to the Jaz.....Join now for all of our fantasy news and analysis. |
We expected a bit more production from Jefferson with Tony Parker and .....Join now for all of our fantasy news and analysis. |
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| George Hill (G) SAN
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11/19/2009 |
| Hill had 18 points in Thursday's loss to the Jazz......Join now for all of our fantasy news and analysis. |
With Tony Parker (ankle) out, Hill led the Spurs in shots on Thursday .....Join now for all of our fantasy news and analysis. |
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| Tim Duncan (F) SAN
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11/19/2009 |
| Duncan had 21 points, nine rebounds and five assists in the Spurs' los.....Join now for all of our fantasy news and analysis. |
One would think that Duncan's fantasy impact would increase without To.....Join now for all of our fantasy news and analysis. |
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| Emmanuel Ginobili (G) SAN
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11/19/2009 |
| Ginobili (groin) will miss the next week to 10 days, ESPN's Marc Stein.....Join now for all of our fantasy news and analysis. |
The good news is that an MRI on his strained groin revealed no structu.....Join now for all of our fantasy news and analysis. |
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| George Hill (G) SAN
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11/19/2009 |
| Hill had 15 points and four assists in Wednesday's loss to the Mavs......Join now for all of our fantasy news and analysis. |
With Manu Ginobili out for Thursday's game and Tony Parker doubtful, H.....Join now for all of our fantasy news and analysis. |
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| Tony Parker (G) SAN
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11/19/2009 |
| Parker (ankle) is doubtful for Thursday's game against Utah, according.....Join now for all of our fantasy news and analysis. |
Parker's ankle has been bothering him for more than a week, and we wou.....Join now for all of our fantasy news and analysis. |
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| Emmanuel Ginobili (G) SAN
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11/19/2009 |
| Ginobili (groin) has been ruled out of Thursday's game against the Jaz.....Join now for all of our fantasy news and analysis. |
Manu will undergo further tests on this groin injury on Thursday, an i.....Join now for all of our fantasy news and analysis. |
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| Antonio McDyess (F) SAN
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11/19/2009 |
| McDyess started at center in Wednesday's loss to the Mavs, scoring eig.....Join now for all of our fantasy news and analysis. |
It seems that McDyess and DeJuan Blair will switch off at center depen.....Join now for all of our fantasy news and analysis. |
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| Tim Duncan (F) SAN
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11/18/2009 |
| Duncan (ankle) recorded 22 points, 14 rebounds, six assists and four b.....Join now for all of our fantasy news and analysis. |
Duncan said last weekend his ankle still isn't fully healthy, but we c.....Join now for all of our fantasy news and analysis. |
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| Emmanuel Ginobili (G) SAN
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11/18/2009 |
| Ginobili left Wednesday's game against the Mavericks with a strained l.....Join now for all of our fantasy news and analysis. |
Ginobili was returning from a hamstring injury, only to suffer another.....Join now for all of our fantasy news and analysis. |
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Roster
Blair, DeJuan F
Bogans, Keith G
Bonner, Matt F
De Colo, Nando G
Duncan, Tim F
Finley, Michael F
Ginobili, Emmanuel G
Hairston, Malik G
Haislip, Marcus F
Hill, George G
Jefferson, Richard F
Mahinmi, Ian F
Mason, Roger G
McDyess, Antonio F
Parker, Tony G
Ratliff, Theo C
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